A nine-bar succession count, and the one part of it that survived a walk-forward test.
A succession count marks each bar that closes beyond a fixed reference a set number of bars back. Nine in a row is the classic exhaustion signature: a trend that has extended without a single pause is a trend running on fewer and fewer participants.
The validation level (the close of the last zero-succession day) was tested walk-forward over 480 events. It was reached 44.2% of the time against a 30.1% base rate: a 14.0 point edge, with a 95% confidence interval running from +8.9 to +19.5 points. That interval clears the base rate, which is what separates a result from a coincidence.
Most of them. The 7.86% and 10% primary targets do not separate at any window we tested. The deep -16.18% retracement was reached once in 477 events. The arrival-window effect at days 16 to 19 has a confidence interval spanning zero, which means it is not there. We publish all of it, because a product that only shows its wins is a brochure.
The count anchors on the highest high of day four or five after the setup, not on the swing high a chart package would draw. Those differ more often than you would expect, and the measurement above is only valid for the definition it was run against.
Dealer gamma across the expiry curve, and a written read every session.
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